Syria, 2011–2019

Autocracy · Republic · Middle East · The 2010s era

Syria’s descent from protest into a prolonged, multi-sided civil war with foreign intervention, mass displacement and state fragmentation.

Protests in 2011 met with force escalated into a multi-sided civil war involving the government, a range of opposition and jihadist factions, Kurdish forces and several foreign powers. Large parts of the country were destroyed, and millions were displaced internally and abroad. By the end of the decade the government, backed by external allies, had recovered much of the territory while areas remained outside its control.

Open Syria 2011–2019 in the interactive 3D atlas →

Dominant patterns

  • Economic Crisis
  • Militarization
  • External Expansion
  • Revolutionary Risk
  • Authoritarian Shift

Political-science factor profile

Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).

Centralization of Power45
Media Control72
Repression95
Nationalism60
Militarization92
Economic Stress92
External Conflict90
Cult of Personality72
Elite Fragmentation65
Institutions25
Social Polarization90
Corruption & Patrimonialism75
Ideological Mobilization60
External Sovereignty55

Economy & society

GDP per capita$3000 (intl-$)
GDP growth-15%/yr
Population18.0M people
Share of world population0.25%
Urban share55%
Life expectancy65 years

Closest historical twins

The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Syria 2011–2019, by similarity score (0–100).

  1. Rwanda, 1990–1994 – similarity 86/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk, Authoritarian Shift
  2. China, 1937–1945 – similarity 83/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk
  3. Ottoman Empire, 1908–1918 – similarity 81/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk
  4. Serbia, 1989–2000 – similarity 78/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
  5. Qing Dynasty, 1820–1860 – similarity 78/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk
  6. China, 1927–1937 – similarity 78/100 · shared: Militarization, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk
  7. Iraq, 1979–2003 – similarity 74/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
  8. Haiti, 1791–1804 – similarity 74/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk

What followed

  • A prolonged multi-sided civil war.
  • Mass violence and displacement of civilians.