Ukraine, 2013–2015
Hybrid Regime · Republic · Eastern Europe · The 2010s era
Ukraine from the Maidan revolution through the annexation of Crimea and war in the Donbas, amid oligarchic politics and economic collapse.
The suspension of an EU association agreement triggered the Maidan protests of 2013–2014 and the removal of President Yanukovych. Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, and a war began in the eastern Donbas between government forces and Russian-backed separatists. The new government pursued closer ties with the EU amid economic contraction and entrenched problems of oligarchic influence and corruption.
Dominant patterns
- Economic Crisis
- External Expansion
- Militarization
- Revolutionary Risk
- Institutional Decay
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 42 |
| Media Control | 40 |
| Repression | 45 |
| Nationalism | 68 |
| Militarization | 65 |
| Economic Stress | 80 |
| External Conflict | 88 |
| Cult of Personality | 35 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 72 |
| Institutions | 35 |
| Social Polarization | 78 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 80 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 50 |
| External Sovereignty | 60 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $12k (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | -7%/yr |
| Population | 45.0M people |
| Share of world population | 0.62% |
| Urban share | 69% |
| Life expectancy | 71 years |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Ukraine 2013–2015, by similarity score (0–100).
- China, 1937–1945 – similarity 86/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, External Expansion, Militarization, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Haiti, 1791–1804 – similarity 82/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, External Expansion, Militarization, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Russia, 1991–1999 – similarity 81/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, External Expansion, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Spain, 1788–1814 – similarity 80/100 · shared: External Expansion, Militarization, Institutional Decay
- Qing Dynasty, 1820–1860 – similarity 78/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, External Expansion, Militarization, Revolutionary Risk
- Mexico, 1821–1848 – similarity 78/100 · shared: External Expansion, Militarization, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Ottoman Empire, 1908–1918 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, External Expansion, Militarization, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- China, 1911–1916 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Militarization, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
What followed
- The 2014 Maidan revolution and change of government.
- The annexation of Crimea and war in the Donbas.