Mexico, 1821–1848
Hybrid Regime · Republic · Central America · Industrial Age era
Early independent Mexico, a turbulent republic of coups and caudillos that lost half its territory in war with the United States.
Independent Mexico struggled to establish stable government amid conflicts between federalists and centralists, frequent coups and the dominance of military caudillos such as Santa Anna. Economic weakness and regional fragmentation compounded the instability. War with the United States (1846–48) ended in the loss of roughly half the national territory.
Dominant patterns
- Institutional Decay
- Revolutionary Risk
- External Expansion
- Militarization
- Imperial Decline
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 35 |
| Media Control | 38 |
| Repression | 45 |
| Nationalism | 55 |
| Militarization | 62 |
| Economic Stress | 62 |
| External Conflict | 70 |
| Cult of Personality | 48 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 82 |
| Institutions | 28 |
| Social Polarization | 60 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 60 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 48 |
| External Sovereignty | 75 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $1000 (intl-$) |
| Population | 7.0M people |
| Share of world population | 0.64% |
| Territory | ~4.4M km² |
| Capital population | ~200k |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Mexico 1821–1848, by similarity score (0–100).
- Gran Colombia, 1819–1831 – similarity 95/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, External Expansion, Militarization, Imperial Decline
- Seleucid Empire, 150–63 BCE – similarity 87/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, External Expansion, Imperial Decline
- China, 1911–1916 – similarity 87/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Militarization, Imperial Decline
- Visigothic Kingdom, 600–711 CE – similarity 86/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, External Expansion, Imperial Decline
- Eastern Jin, 317–420 CE – similarity 85/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, External Expansion, Imperial Decline
- Roman Republic, 80–44 BCE – similarity 83/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, External Expansion, Militarization, Imperial Decline
- Gaul, 100–52 BCE – similarity 82/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, External Expansion, Militarization, Imperial Decline
- Spain, 1788–1814 – similarity 82/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, External Expansion, Militarization, Imperial Decline
What followed
- Loss of the north to the United States in 1848.
- Chronic instability between federalists and centralists.