China, 1911–1916
Hybrid Regime · Republic · East Asia · Great War Era era
The early Chinese Republic after the fall of the Qing, a fragile order under Yuan Shikai sliding toward warlord fragmentation.
The 1911 Xinhai Revolution ended two millennia of imperial rule and established a republic, but power quickly concentrated in the hands of Yuan Shikai, who suppressed parliamentary opposition and briefly attempted to make himself emperor. Central authority was weak and contested. After Yuan’s death in 1916 the country fragmented among regional warlords.
Dominant patterns
- Institutional Decay
- Revolutionary Risk
- Economic Crisis
- Imperial Decline
- Militarization
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 35 |
| Media Control | 45 |
| Repression | 52 |
| Nationalism | 60 |
| Militarization | 62 |
| Economic Stress | 65 |
| External Conflict | 60 |
| Cult of Personality | 50 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 85 |
| Institutions | 28 |
| Social Polarization | 60 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 68 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 50 |
| External Sovereignty | 60 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $800 (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | -0.5%/yr |
| Population | 440.0M people |
| Share of world population | 25% |
| Urban share | 10% |
| Territory | ~11.0M km² |
| Capital population | ~800k |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles China 1911–1916, by similarity score (0–100).
- Mexico, 1821–1848 – similarity 87/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Imperial Decline, Militarization
- Mexico, 1910–1920 – similarity 83/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Militarization
- Safavid Persia, 1666–1722 CE – similarity 82/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Imperial Decline
- Russia, 1991–1999 – similarity 81/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Imperial Decline
- Seleucid Empire, 150–63 BCE – similarity 81/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Imperial Decline
- Gran Colombia, 1819–1831 – similarity 80/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Imperial Decline, Militarization
- Ukraine, 2013–2015 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Militarization
- Spain, 1788–1814 – similarity 75/100 · shared: Institutional Decay, Imperial Decline, Militarization
What followed
- The 1911 Xinhai Revolution ending imperial rule.
- Descent into warlord fragmentation after 1916.