Brazil, 2019–2022

Democracy · Republic · South America · Present Day era

Brazil under Bolsonaro, a polarized democracy of right-populist government and institutional friction that saw a narrow, contested transfer of power in 2022.

Jair Bolsonaro governed Brazil as a right-wing populist, clashing with the courts, the press and public-health authorities during the pandemic and questioning the electoral system. Deep polarization and institutional friction marked the period. He narrowly lost the 2022 election, and after supporters stormed government buildings in early 2023 the courts and electoral institutions held.

Open Brazil 2019–2022 in the interactive 3D atlas →

Dominant patterns

  • Revolutionary Risk
  • Democratization
  • Economic Crisis

Political-science factor profile

Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).

Centralization of Power45
Media Control38
Repression40
Nationalism65
Militarization45
Economic Stress55
External Conflict25
Cult of Personality58
Elite Fragmentation60
Institutions55
Social Polarization82
Corruption & Patrimonialism55
Ideological Mobilization58
External Sovereignty90

Economy & society

GDP per capita$15k (intl-$)
GDP growth+0.5%/yr
Population214.0M people
Share of world population2.7%
Urban share87%
Life expectancy74 years

Closest historical twins

The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Brazil 2019–2022, by similarity score (0–100).

  1. Brazil, 2011–2016 – similarity 82/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Democratization, Economic Crisis
  2. Brazil, 1822–1850 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Democratization
  3. South Africa, 1994–2008 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Democratization, Economic Crisis
  4. Poland, 2015–2023 – similarity 70/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk
  5. Tunisia, 2011–2019 – similarity 69/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Democratization, Economic Crisis
  6. Turkey, 2002–2011 – similarity 68/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk
  7. France, 1815–1848 – similarity 66/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Democratization
  8. Hungary, 2010–2024 – similarity 65/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk

What followed

  • A narrow, disputed but peaceful transfer of power.
  • Courts and elections holding under strain.