Russia, 2010–2024
Hybrid Regime · Republic · Eastern Europe · Present Day era
Consolidation of personalist power, growing media control, and external expansion against a backdrop of economic stagnation.
Executive power was concentrated through constitutional changes, consolidated control of major media, and narrowed regional autonomy. After 2014 the state annexed Crimea and backed armed formations in eastern Ukraine; a full interstate war with Ukraine followed in 2022, triggering broad sanctions. Independent outlets and NGOs were progressively restricted and professional emigration accelerated. V-Dem series show expression and civil-liberties indices declining through the period while military expenditure rose.
Dominant patterns
- Personalist Rule
- Revolutionary Risk
- Militarization
- External Expansion
- Authoritarian Shift
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 76 |
| Media Control | 57 |
| Repression | 65 |
| Nationalism | 82 |
| Militarization | 85 |
| Economic Stress | 50 |
| External Conflict | 56 |
| Cult of Personality | 83 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 55 |
| Institutions | 20 |
| Social Polarization | 76 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 79 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 80 |
| External Sovereignty | 95 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $24k (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | +1.3%/yr |
| Population | 145.4M people |
| Share of world population | 1.8% |
| Urban share | 74% |
| Life expectancy | 71.3 years |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Russia 2010–2024, by similarity score (0–100).
- Italy, 1922–1929 – similarity 82/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Revolutionary Risk, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
- Germany, 1933–1939 – similarity 81/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Revolutionary Risk, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
- Serbia, 1989–2000 – similarity 79/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
- Turkey, 2013–2023 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Revolutionary Risk, Authoritarian Shift
- Iran, 1979–2024 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
- Italy, 1936–1943 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
- Russia, 1905–1917 – similarity 75/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Militarization, External Expansion
- Syracuse, 405–367 BCE – similarity 75/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Militarization, External Expansion, Authoritarian Shift
What followed
- Territorial conflicts and sanctions pressure.
- Long-term economic isolation and a brain drain.