Turkey, 2013–2023

Hybrid Regime · Republic · Middle East · Present Day era

A gradual shift from a hybrid regime to a personalist autocracy after an attempted coup.

The Gezi protests and the December 2013 corruption cases opened a rupture between the government and its former Gülenist allies. After the failed July 2016 coup, an extended state of emergency purged the military, judiciary, academia and media. The 2017 referendum replaced the parliamentary system with an executive presidency. Recurrent currency crises from 2018 accompanied the subordination of monetary policy to the executive.

Open Turkey 2013–2023 in the interactive 3D atlas →

Dominant patterns

  • Revolutionary Risk
  • Personalist Rule
  • Institutional Decay
  • Authoritarian Shift
  • Imperial Decline

Political-science factor profile

Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).

Centralization of Power65
Media Control61
Repression57
Nationalism78
Militarization53
Economic Stress34
External Conflict55
Cult of Personality62
Elite Fragmentation57
Institutions23
Social Polarization100
Corruption & Patrimonialism89
Ideological Mobilization91
External Sovereignty86

Economy & society

GDP per capita$23k (intl-$)
GDP growth+3.6%/yr
Population87.3M people
Share of world population1.1%
Urban share87%
Life expectancy76.8 years

Closest historical twins

The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Turkey 2013–2023, by similarity score (0–100).

  1. Russia, 2010–2024 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
  2. Venezuela, 1999–2024 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Personalist Rule, Institutional Decay, Authoritarian Shift
  3. Italy, 1922–1929 – similarity 70/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
  4. Ghana, 1957–1966 – similarity 69/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Personalist Rule, Institutional Decay, Authoritarian Shift
  5. Egypt, 2011–2014 – similarity 65/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay, Authoritarian Shift
  6. Turkey, 2002–2011 – similarity 63/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Personalist Rule
  7. Serbia, 1989–2000 – similarity 62/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
  8. Thailand, 2006–2014 – similarity 62/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay

What followed

  • A presidential super-system.
  • Economic instability.