Egypt, 2011–2014
Hybrid Regime · Republic · Middle East · The 2010s era
Egypt from the 2011 uprising through an elected Islamist government to the 2013 military takeover, amid polarization and economic strain.
A mass uprising in early 2011 ended Hosni Mubarak’s thirty-year rule and opened a contested transition. Parliamentary and presidential elections brought a Muslim Brotherhood government to power in 2012, amid deep polarization between Islamist and secular forces and continued economic difficulty. In mid-2013 the military removed the elected president after large protests and subsequently consolidated power under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Dominant patterns
- Revolutionary Risk
- Economic Crisis
- Institutional Decay
- Authoritarian Shift
- Militarization
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 55 |
| Media Control | 62 |
| Repression | 68 |
| Nationalism | 65 |
| Militarization | 65 |
| Economic Stress | 70 |
| External Conflict | 45 |
| Cult of Personality | 50 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 72 |
| Institutions | 35 |
| Social Polarization | 78 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 62 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 55 |
| External Sovereignty | 85 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $11k (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | +2%/yr |
| Population | 87.0M people |
| Share of world population | 1.2% |
| Urban share | 43% |
| Life expectancy | 71 years |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Egypt 2011–2014, by similarity score (0–100).
- Argentina, 1976–1983 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Authoritarian Shift, Militarization
- Rwanda, 1990–1994 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Authoritarian Shift, Militarization
- Thailand, 2006–2014 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Mexico, 1910–1920 – similarity 75/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Institutional Decay, Militarization
- Poland, 1980–1989 – similarity 75/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Institutional Decay, Authoritarian Shift
- Venezuela, 1999–2024 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Institutional Decay, Authoritarian Shift
- Poland, 1918–1935 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Institutional Decay, Militarization
- Ghana, 1957–1966 – similarity 71/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Economic Crisis, Institutional Decay, Authoritarian Shift
What followed
- The 2011 uprising that ended Mubarak’s rule.
- The 2013 military takeover under Sisi.