Venezuela, 1999–2024
Hybrid Regime · Republic · South America · The 2010s era
The Bolivarian project under Chávez and Maduro concentrated power and polarized society, ending in hyperinflation, oil collapse and mass emigration.
Elected in 1998, Hugo Chávez rewrote the constitution and channelled an oil boom into social programmes and a Bolivarian movement centred on the presidency. Successive changes concentrated power over courts, the electoral authority and the state oil company, while media and opposition space narrowed. After Chávez’s death in 2013 and a collapse in oil prices, the economy contracted sharply into hyperinflation under Nicolás Maduro. Disputed elections, sanctions and the emigration of several million people marked the following decade.
Dominant patterns
- Economic Crisis
- Personalist Rule
- Authoritarian Shift
- Revolutionary Risk
- Institutional Decay
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 78 |
| Media Control | 68 |
| Repression | 62 |
| Nationalism | 65 |
| Militarization | 58 |
| Economic Stress | 88 |
| External Conflict | 35 |
| Cult of Personality | 78 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 45 |
| Institutions | 30 |
| Social Polarization | 88 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 82 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 70 |
| External Sovereignty | 68 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $11k (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | -3%/yr |
| Population | 28.0M people |
| Share of world population | 0.35% |
| Urban share | 88% |
| Life expectancy | 72 years |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Venezuela 1999–2024, by similarity score (0–100).
- Poland, 1980–1989 – similarity 82/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Ghana, 1957–1966 – similarity 80/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Turkey, 2013–2023 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Egypt, 2011–2014 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk, Institutional Decay
- Russia, 2010–2024 – similarity 72/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk
- China, 1966–1976 – similarity 69/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk
- Serbia, 1989–2000 – similarity 69/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
- Iran, 1979–2024 – similarity 67/100 · shared: Economic Crisis, Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
What followed
- Hyperinflation, oil collapse and mass emigration.
- Erosion of competitive politics.