Philippines, 2016–2022
Hybrid Regime · Republic · Southeast Asia · Present Day era
The Philippines under Duterte, an elected populist whose violent anti-drug campaign and attacks on critics strained democratic institutions.
Rodrigo Duterte, elected in 2016, launched a violent "war on drugs" that killed thousands in extrajudicial operations, while attacking critical media, the opposition and independent institutions. His personal popularity remained high amid a populist, strongman style. Competitive elections continued, and power transferred in 2022, even as human-rights and rule-of-law concerns mounted.
Dominant patterns
- Personalist Rule
- Authoritarian Shift
- Revolutionary Risk
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 55 |
| Media Control | 52 |
| Repression | 68 |
| Nationalism | 62 |
| Militarization | 55 |
| Economic Stress | 45 |
| External Conflict | 35 |
| Cult of Personality | 62 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 52 |
| Institutions | 50 |
| Social Polarization | 62 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 62 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 52 |
| External Sovereignty | 88 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $9000 (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | +4%/yr |
| Population | 110.0M people |
| Share of world population | 1.4% |
| Urban share | 47% |
| Life expectancy | 71 years |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles Philippines 2016–2022, by similarity score (0–100).
- Ghana, 1957–1966 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk
- Turkey, 2002–2011 – similarity 75/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Revolutionary Risk
- Brazil, 1937–1945 – similarity 72/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
- China, 1966–1976 – similarity 71/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk
- China, 1978–1989 – similarity 69/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
- Chile, 1973–1990 – similarity 68/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift
- Thailand, 2006–2014 – similarity 68/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk
- Russia, 2010–2024 – similarity 67/100 · shared: Personalist Rule, Authoritarian Shift, Revolutionary Risk
What followed
- A deadly extrajudicial anti-drug campaign.
- Competitive elections amid democratic erosion.