United States, 1860–1865
Democracy · Republic · North America · Industrial Age era
Civil war: extreme social polarization and internal conflict while institutions endure.
Lincoln’s election on a free-soil platform triggered the secession of eleven slaveholding states and civil war. The Union mobilized industrial and demographic superiority in the deadliest conflict in national history. Emancipation shifted the war’s legal basis in 1863. Union victory preserved the federation and abolished slavery, at the cost of roughly 750,000 dead and a contested Reconstruction.
Dominant patterns
- Democratization
- Great-Power Rivalry
- Revolutionary Risk
- Militarization
Political-science factor profile
Each factor 0–100; higher = stronger authoritarian / crisis pole (except institutional stability, where higher = stronger institutions).
| Centralization of Power | 15 |
| Media Control | 22 |
| Repression | 33 |
| Nationalism | 72 |
| Militarization | 84 |
| Economic Stress | 50 |
| External Conflict | 20 |
| Cult of Personality | 20 |
| Elite Fragmentation | 78 |
| Institutions | 83 |
| Social Polarization | 96 |
| Corruption & Patrimonialism | 18 |
| Ideological Mobilization | 45 |
| External Sovereignty | 96 |
Economy & society
| GDP per capita | $4570 (intl-$) |
| GDP growth | +1%/yr |
| Population | 35.6M people |
| Share of world population | 2.7% |
Closest historical twins
The country-eras whose structural profile most resembles United States 1860–1865, by similarity score (0–100).
- United States, 2008–2024 – similarity 83/100 · shared: Democratization, Great-Power Rivalry, Militarization
- United States, 1929–1939 – similarity 79/100 · shared: Democratization, Great-Power Rivalry
- United Kingdom, 1815–1837 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Democratization
- Germany, 1918–1923 – similarity 77/100 · shared: Democratization, Revolutionary Risk
- France, 1789–1799 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Democratization, Revolutionary Risk, Militarization
- Austria-Hungary, 1900–1918 – similarity 76/100 · shared: Revolutionary Risk, Militarization
- Dutch Republic, 1600–1672 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Democratization, Great-Power Rivalry, Militarization
- United States, 1968–1980 – similarity 73/100 · shared: Democratization, Great-Power Rivalry, Militarization
What followed
- Preservation of a unified state.
- Abolition of slavery and Reconstruction of the South.